[SMM Cobalt-Lithium Morning Meeting Summary] Post-holiday lithium chemical trends diverge; LFP demand improves, materials market under pressure
Post-holiday battery materials market trends diverged. Lithium ore quotes rebounded slightly, trade inventories were destocked, and ore prices are expected to consolidate in line with lithium carbonate in the short term. Lithium carbonate futures retreated after a rapid rise, closing at 117,300 yuan/mt, down 1.28%; domestic production declined, downstream inventories were significantly destocked, and salt plants continued to ship mainly under long-term contracts. Lithium hydroxide spot order quotes rose to 130,000–140,000 yuan/mt, but purchasing was cautious and transactions were sluggish. Cobalt products and nickel sulphate remained under pressure, cost support weakened, and demand recovery for ternary cathode materials was limited. LFP orders were relatively strong, leading production lines were near full capacity, finished product inventories declined, and the average price rose to 50,400 yuan/mt; resistance to iron phosphate price increases grew. Artificial graphite had strong cost support, separators were driven by NEV, energy storage, and export rush demand, with a tight supply-demand balance; electrolytes rose due to earlier cost pass-through. In the recycling market, inquiries recovered, but transactions had yet to pick up volume. Going forward, attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking, the realization of production schedules, and changes in raw material prices.